Commodity currencies continue to gain ground, while the US dollar remains under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions and a growing preference for risk assets. News of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran has helped improve market sentiment, reducing demand for safe-haven assets and supporting growth-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.
At the same time, expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy continue to weigh on the dollar, as they remain closely tied to incoming macroeconomic data. Declining US Treasury yields and lingering uncertainty حول inflation trends are encouraging a cautious stance among investors. Focus is now shifting to upcoming US releases, including inflation, consumer sentiment, and business activity data, which could influence interest rate expectations.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD is extending its upward movement after breaking out of the 0.6840–0.6960 range. The next upside targets are located near the yearly highs at 0.7160–0.7180. A move below 0.7020 would weaken the bullish outlook.
Key events for AUD/USD:
- 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core CPI
- 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan inflation expectations
- 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan consumer sentiment
USD/CAD
USD/CAD continues to decline, reflecting ongoing strength in the Canadian dollar. The downside breakout signals a shift in favour of commodity currencies, supported by the broader market backdrop and expectations ahead of key Canadian data, including employment figures.
From a technical perspective, the pair may move lower towards 1.3750–1.3780, with several reversal patterns visible on the daily chart. A sustained move above 1.3860 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada unemployment rate
- 15:30 (GMT+3): average hourly wages (permanent employees)
- 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions in crude oil
The upward momentum in commodity currencies is supported by a combination of easing geopolitical risks, a softer US dollar, and stronger demand for risk assets. Breakouts in AUD/USD and USD/CAD point to the potential continuation of current trends, although upcoming data from the US and Canada remain a key uncertainty. Depending on the results, the market may either extend the move or shift into consolidation.
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