Siberia is experiencing a record-breaking wheat harvest, with average yields reaching 2.7 metric tons per hectare as of September 26, according to agricultural consultancy SovEcon.
This marks a significant increase from 2.2 metric tons per hectare last year and a five-year average of 1.9 metric tons per hectare, largely attributed to favorable weather conditions throughout the season.
The Urals region has reported a record grain yield, reaching 2.3 metric tons per hectare as of September 26.
This figure marks a notable increase from the 2.0 metric tons per hectare recorded in 2024 and significantly surpasses the five-year average of 1.6 metric tons per hectare.
Adequate precipitation
This exceptional performance in the Urals contributes to what appears to be a robust harvest season, reflecting favorable agricultural conditions and potentially improved farming practices in the region.
“Wet weather during spring and summer supported spring wheat yields in the Urals and Siberia,” SovEcon said in its latest update.
Over the past three months, both regions have experienced precipitation levels at or above normal, contributing to robust soil moisture reserves.
This is a critical factor for the agricultural outlook, particularly in the Asian part of Russia, where spring crops constitute the primary agricultural output, the consultancy said.
The ample soil moisture is expected to support healthy plant development and potentially lead to favorable yields for these spring-sown crops.
SovEcon projects final yields in Siberia and the Urals at 2.3 metric tonnes per hectare and 2.2 metric tonnes per hectare, respectively, both record highs for the regions.
SovEcon added:
Despite strong yields, total wheat production in the regions is expected to be somewhat below last year due to a smaller planted area.
Projections
SovEcon’s projections for the Siberia and Urals region indicate a slight downturn in production compared to 2024, primarily due to an anticipated reduction in planted area.
For Siberia, SovEcon forecasts a 2025 wheat output of 9.8 million metric tons (mmt). This represents a modest decrease from the 10.2 mmt recorded in 2024.
The expected decline in production is attributed to a significant reduction in the land dedicated to wheat cultivation, with an estimated 4.3 million hectares (mln ha) for 2025, down from 5.0 mln ha in 2024.
This 14% reduction in planted area is a key factor influencing the projected lower yield, the consultancy said.
Similarly, in the Urals region, wheat output for 2025 is projected at 4.1 mmt, a decrease from the 4.4 mmt harvested in 2024.
The planted area for wheat in the Urals is also expected to shrink, with an estimated 1.9 mln ha for 2025, compared to 2.2 mln ha in the previous year.
This roughly 13.6% reduction in planted area mirrors the trend observed in Siberia and contributes to the anticipated lower harvest.
Russia’s 2025 wheat production is projected to be 87.2 million metric tons (mmt) by SovEcon, an increase from 82.6 mmt last year.
This forecast is slightly below the five-year average of 88.3 mmt. The US Department of Agriculture, however, estimates the crop at 85.0 mmt.
“High yields in Siberia and the Urals will partially offset losses from unfavorable weather in the South of Russia,” Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, said in the update.
At the same time, record production in Russia’s Asian regions is unlikely to translate into increased export supply due to their distance from key international grain transport routes.
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